2008 Presidential Election poll and analysis

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2008 Presidential election - Who wins?

Poll ended at Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:24 pm

Barack Obama
21
68%
John McCain
10
32%
 
Total votes: 31

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Roody
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Post by Roody »

JBrazen wrote:Was probably a tactic to keep Obama supporters home. lol
I was suspicious of the same thing. :D
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Post by Roody »

Here's an article on how NBC does their projections.
How NBC News projects election winners

NBC News relies on two sources of information during primaries and caucuses, as well as during the general election. The Associated Press delivers statewide vote counts as well as county by county results for both primary and general elections. The National Election Pool, a consortium formed by NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and the AP, will provide exit polls, precinct votes in selected sample precincts, and models for the analysis of the election information.

NBC News will continue to use exit polls, precinct votes, county votes and statewide votes to project races, using the new computer models which were developed for the last presidential election and revised for 2008.

NBC News election unit analysts will first examine exit poll information in a given race to determine if the race can be called. Exit polls will be conducted in all early primary states as well as Iowa and Nevada. In order to make a call, all three senior election unit analysts must agree, the NBC News director of elections must agree, and the senior news division management representative must agree. If all five agree, a call is made.

If the exit poll information is not sufficient to call a race, usually because either the race is too close to call based upon exit polls alone or because there is a limited amount of exit poll information available, the election unit analysts will examine results from selected sample precincts. If sample precinct information is not sufficient to call a race, the election unit analysts will examine county by county model results. If that is still not sufficient information to make a call, the actual raw votes, both statewide and county by county, will be considered. When all the votes have been counted, a candidate may be named the apparent winner.

NBC News will not project a winner in a state until after the last scheduled poll closing time in that state. If the primary, caucus or general election appears to be close in any given state, an abundance of caution will be used before calling a race in that state.

The increase in absentee and early voting has required a thorough re-evaluation of election projection methods to ensure that absentee voters are properly accounted for. This year absentee ballot polls will be conducted where appropriate.

The head of NBC News’ decision desk, the decision analysts and the quality control desk will be isolated from the calls of other networks. In addition, the entire decision desk area has been physically isolated.

Understanding election night calls
NBC News will be clear about its nomenclature during the entire election process. In addition, NBC News will explain methodology for collecting data it presents. Here are some terms you will hear on TV and read on the web on election night:

Projected winner: NBC has made a projection that a candidate will win the race, but the vote count is not complete. This call is made only after all the polls are scheduled to have closed in a state.

Apparent winner: NBC has tallied enough votes to indicate that a candidate has won the race, but the results may well depend upon a potential recount or final official tallies.

Winner: A candidate who has clearly won the race, beyond the normal margin for a recount. “Winner” will not be used unless returns make the outcome a virtual certainty. Note that neither of these terms refers to the “official” winner, since most states take weeks to certify a winner in an election.

Too early to call: There is not enough data in the NBC News decision computer systems to allow analysts to make a call.

Too close to call: While there is data in the systems, the numbers are too close to allow analysts to make a call.

Understanding results on msnbc.com
As part of NBC News, msnbc.com receives data from NEP and from the Associated Press. NEP gathers two sets of data on Election Day: Exit polls, conducted by NEP, and projection information which is used by NBC to “call,” or project, a race once all the polls have closed in that state. The Associated Press collects unofficial vote tallies, as reported by election officials.

For exit polls, voters leaving the polling place in selected voting districts are handed a questionnaire with both demographic (sex, race, age) and attitudinal questions (Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?). They are also asked to indicate how they voted. Those responses are collected and then transmitted to the NEP, where the results are tabulated and reported.

For vote tallies, results are gathered from election officials in each state as the vote is reported. These are “unofficial” returns because the tallies have not been rechecked and certified by state election authorities.

The Iowa and Nevada Democratic caucus results are not vote totals, but state delegate equivalents; the actual number of people who turned out for the caucus was more than 100,000 in Nevada and 239,000 in Iowa, but there was no straw vote detailing voters' individual preferences.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21886696/
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Post by downhill »

JBrazen wrote:Was probably a tactic to keep Obama supporters home. lol
That is funny though but I think the real reason is he flat out hates McCain. He and McCain have had a few war of words.
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Post by David »

Roody wrote:hmmmm can't imagine. Hey did you hear Karl Rove say he thought Obama would win in a landslide? :eek:
The turd blossom thumping his chest how they could not win without him.

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Post by Roody »

David wrote:The turd blossom thumping his chest how they could not win without him.
The pairing with Fox news seemed befitting of the two. :nod:
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Post by Cypher »

Not really news, but this made me LMAO :rotfl:
[YOUTUBE]<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/-vIAfBqWOL4&hl ... ram><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/-vIAfBqWOL4&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>[/YOUTUBE]
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Post by Roody »

That's soooooooooooo wrong :rotfl:
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Post by Sava700 »

Look..its Obama being a good sport. :rolleyes:

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1888749
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Post by Roody »

Yeah how dare he have to scratch his face. :rotfl:
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Post by Sava700 »

Roody wrote:Yeah how dare he have to scratch his face. :rotfl:
funny either way but hardly a scratch :eek:
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Post by Roody »

Sava700 wrote:funny either way but hardly a scratch :eek:
Certainly he should have used a different finger. I won't debate that point. Still I think they are making a bigger deal out of it then needs to be, but hey at least they were fair and balanced. :p
To be fair, McCain just straight up told Obama to go f*ck himself this morning.
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Post by JawZ »

Man, look at all these McCain supporters!!!

blebs, BroncoSport, Far-N-Wide, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark, RoscoPColtrane, Sava700, Think, tr87526, twwabw


I see a pattern emerging
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Post by 64bit »

Sava700 wrote:Look..its Obama being a good sport. :rolleyes:

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1888749
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
She's presenting like a mandrill!
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Post by downhill »

Sava700 wrote:Look..its Obama being a good sport. :rolleyes:

http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1888749
Thats quite a reach there, Sava.
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Post by JC »

downhill wrote:Thats quite a reach there, Sava.

LOL, I have to agree :eek:
Speedguide.... If you don't love Obama you won't like it here.
Straight out the Trailer!:thumb:
Re.....Spect "walk"!

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Post by Mark »

UOD wrote:Man, look at all these McCain supporters!!!

blebs, BroncoSport, Far-N-Wide, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark, RoscoPColtrane, Sava700, Think, tr87526, twwabw


I see a pattern emerging
and what pattern is that ?
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Post by Roody »

Mark wrote:and what pattern is that ?
That the Dem masses here aren't as big as one would think?
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Post by Roody »

Looks like early numbers are starting to come in although nothing clear enough to declare a winner. Right now McCain is leading in Kentucky and Obama is leading in Indiana.
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Post by JawZ »

Mark wrote:and what pattern is that ?

Plaid?
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Post by Roody »

Election cheat sheet.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167116
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Post by Roody »

According to MSNBC it looks like Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat in the senate.
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Post by Roody »

MSNBC is projecting John McCain as the winner of Kentucky and Barack Obama as winner of Vermont. List in first post of this thread has been updated.
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Post by Sava700 »

downhill wrote:Thats quite a reach there, Sava.
:rotfl: reaching his point with the wrong finger...
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Post by Roody »

Fox news is projecting that McCain has won West Virginia. CNN and MSNBC have not confirmed this. I will update the state count once I get further confirmation.
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Post by downhill »

Sava700 wrote: :rotfl: reaching his point with the wrong finger...
You can read into it what you want but I kinda doubt anyone would make a gaff like that when running for President.

A governor of Texas, yes but not for President.

So of course it's a reach by a few Obama haters.
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Post by Roody »

Roody wrote:According to MSNBC it looks like Elizabeth Dole will lose her seat in the senate.
The numbers are contradicting this at the moment.
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Post by Prey521 »

It's too bad that my area doesn't offer CNNHD or MSNBCHD so that I could switch between FoxNewsHD and and the others.
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Post by Roody »

We are going to have a slew of states with polls closing at 8pm eastern. I would think we would start seeing some movement shortly thereafter.
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Post by Roody »

MSNBC is projecting McCain has won South Carolina. Waiting to confirm with other news sites.
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Post by Prey521 »

Roody wrote:MSNBC is projecting McCain has won South Carolina. Waiting to confirm with other news sites.
Geez, you're really into this huh? :)
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Post by Roody »

JBrazen wrote:Geez, you're really into this huh? :)
Yeah I'm a bit of a political junkie. Been on both sides of the aisle with this one. :)
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Post by Prey521 »

Fox just called S. Carolina for McCain.
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Post by Roody »

JBrazen wrote:Fox just called S. Carolina for McCain.
Just saw that. I added it to the list.
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Post by Debbie »

JBrazen wrote:Geez, you're really into this huh? :)
Roody wrote:Yeah I'm a bit of a political junkie. Been on both sides of the aisle with this one. :)
:sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep:































Hi Roody!!! :D :rotfl:
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Post by downhill »

So far I'm on a roll in predicting the states in Burke's thread.

Only 48 more to go. lol
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Post by Roody »

Debbie wrote: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep:































Hi Roody!!! :D :rotfl:
Hey Debbie. :D
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Post by Roody »

downhill wrote:So far I'm on a roll in predicting the states in Burke's thread.

Only 48 more to go. lol
:rotfl:
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Post by Roody »

MSNBC projects Obama wins Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Maine, Connecticut, D.C., and New Hampshire.

McCain wins Tennessee and Oklahoma.
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Post by Roody »

Obama stands at 103 electoral with McCain at 34.
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Post by Roody »

MSNBC is reporting that Elizabeth Dole (R) lost her Senate seat in North Carolina.
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