Blu-ray Wins the Format Battle, but Consumers Don't Buy it

[downhill]

• Ownership of standard DVD players is practically ubiquitous (87%);
• Few report owning Blu-ray disc players (4%), Sony PlayStation 3 (5%), HD DVD players (6%) and the HD-DVD drive for the Xbox 360 (1% have external drive while 9% have an Xbox 360);
• Only nine percent of non-Blu-ray player owners report being likely to purchase a Blu-ray disc player within the next year, even when made fully aware that Blu-ray is considered to be the definitive technology for high definition DVD players going forward;
• Two-thirds of consumers are familiar with the recently resolved high-
• definition format war (67%) and seven in ten of them have heard that Blu-ray is the unofficial winner (69%);
• Nearly a quarter (23%) of those aware of the format war report that they had been waiting for the rivalry to play itself out before purchasing a high definition player, but by April they had yet to do so;
• Although one-third of consumers report owning a high definition television set (HDTV; 35%), with incidence higher among males (41%) versus females (28%) and rising decidedly with household income (15% for those with less than $35K vs. 53% among those with $75K+), the percentage of HDTV owners likely to purchase a Blu-ray disc player is only 14 percent;
• Current ownership of Blu-ray disc players among HDTV owners stands at 10 percent.

http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/news/2008/0 ... buy_it.php


As the article states, I would agree that the biggest reason it's not catchig on, is price. The second biggest is that most are probably happy with the picture you get from a regular DVD .

[A_old]

i'm not surprised. frankly, i don't care to spend 400 bucks on a player, even if it is a PS3..

[Sava700]

although I'd love to jump to a blue ray player...it certainly is the price that is holding me back at this time..mostly since most of my extra cash has gone to gas here lately.

[Prey521]

I'll be enjoying my Toshiba HD-XA2 until a BluRay Profile 2.0 player runs below $300.

[Shagster]

Been telling people both formats would lose.

[brembo]

When Gran Turismo 5 shows up (it may have by now, I dunno) I'll be getting a PS3. I'm hearing the video system in the PS3 is about the best money can buy (well, for less than 5k), so it outta be a decent value for watching some HD digital goodness.

[Prey521]

BluRay won't lose, but it's going to take a while before it hits the mainstream. With no competition form Toshiba, it was obvious that the sales and deals would end and the prices would rise.

[Jim]

Stream Of Consciousness Man returns!


Blu-ray will be the next disc format, but we're still many, many years before it has taken the place of DVD sales.

DVD sales finally surpassed VHS sales in, what, 2002? And rentals in 2003? The DVD format was launched as a home video option in 1997. I predict it will be an even longer period of time before Blu-ray overtakes DVD, as it has a lot to catch up to.

As the article states, I would agree that the biggest reason it's not catchig on, is price. The second biggest is that most are probably happy with the picture you get from a regular DVD .

The geeks of the internet don't always realize that the average consumer doesn't think like them. While they toil away on the intricacies of video compression methods and 7.1 PCM audio, Joe Six-Pack is more than happy with the picture quality on his standard DVD player. Hell, he's still years away from buying an HDTV, unless some slimy salesman tells him that he "needs" to upgrade before February 17th of next year.

He's not as likely to spend a higher price so he can have some new format, with new media, requiring new equipment and with a relatively paltry selection of movies to chose from ($30 for a high def copy of Me, Myself & Irene? Faaaaaabulous!) when the current standard is all he "needs".

Let me elaborate a little more on that. While sticking with "old" equipment (composite/RF plugs on an old SDTV), Joe still saw an improvement when he upgraded from VHS to DVD. Yes, he missed out on the surround sound (DTS-wha?), the full anamorphic 480p video and all that jazz. Instead was treated to some dot-crawl and a mono audio mix. But you know what? He could still see a benefit for his upgrade from VHS. Exactly what is he supposed to be impressed with by hooking up a BD player to the same television set?

When Gran Turismo 5 shows up (it may have by now, I dunno) I'll be getting a PS3. I'm hearing the video system in the PS3 is about the best money can buy (well, for less than 5k), so it outta be a decent value for watching some HD digital goodness.

You're looking at 2009 at the earliest. That is, unless you want to play the $40 demo.

EDIT: JBrazen's post more or less hit on my points with far less clackity-clack of the keyboard. So much for hitting reply and then leaving the PC for a bit without refreshing the thread.

[OSULLY]

At least with the PS3 I can Fold or watch BD. Had to get that in.

[Russell]

I have a PS3, but have yet to buy any Blue Ray movies for it. The biggest reason being the higher price for new movies. It may not look as good, but I can live with regular DVDs for now.

[YARDofSTUF]

Blu ray may be teh shiznit, but regular DVDs don't look bad. When the switch started from VHS to DVD, you could see a major change that made the picture more clear and better all around.

With blu ray its making visual improvements, but little things, and whether I can see the goosebumps on a persons arm when they walk into the cold ro not, I don't care, especially as the media costs more.

[Noevo]

I knew there was a reason we kept Jim around

[David]

Jim,

Should not the ability to rent movies negates the additional price of blu-ray ("Me, Myself and Irene" does get a bit tiring)?

[Roody]

It's going to have to drop alot before I buy one.

[Shagster]

Why are people so against the idea that flash will be the next major format?

[Jim]

Jim,

Should not the ability to rent movies negates the additional price of blu-ray ("Me, Myself and Irene" does get a bit tiring)?

Yes, although even Netflix is planning on raising their prices for their Blu-ray enabled subscribers sometime this year. The exact amount hasn't been specified as of this time.

Thankfully, some like Criterion are bucking this trend, but they'll certainly be in the minority for the near future.

I wouldn't say it negates the additional price, but I believe it definitely goes a long way to help the format get legs strong enough to stand on its own. Aside from the hardcore early adopter with excess discretionary income, the more casual BD owners will likely only purchase certain favorite movies (if any) until prices fall in-line with current DVD standards. We aren't willing to pay a premium for whatever the current lame Eddie Murphy comedy is (including 2008 Oscar nominee Norbit), but we're a lot more likely to shell out a little extra for something like a direct digital Pixar film on a more scratch-resistant format.

For the masses to even consider adopting a new format, it is essential that it hits the $19.99 or less price point on every new title that hits the street. Until then, the best they can hope for are mediocre sales on all but the flashiest BD titles.

[David]

Jim,

I sincerely believe it is the price of the players that provides for the resistance. HD-DVR is a fine option for those with cable, but a bit too technical.

[Jim]

I sincerely believe it is the price of the players that provides for the resistance. HD-DVR is a fine option for those with cable, but a bit too technical.

NPD isn't even reporting on individual BD player sales at this point due to the relative dust they're collecting on store shelves. But Sony's BD trojan horse will accomplish its goal of getting players into people's homes, even if it's at a slower rate than they imagined or hoped for. Their projection of 10 million PS3s sold in 2008 is solid, even if that number is being padded by Europe and Japan. The other manufacturers will fare better once they roll out the sales like they did during their HD war.

Obviously the price of the player is an obstacle in preventing sales from going higher, but there are also a large number of people who share Russell's opinion on the format. They already own the player, but don't own or plan on owning any software for it in the near future. This will certainly benefit the format in later years once prices fall to the levels I stated, but it isn't doing much for them in 2008.

BD player prices aren't likely to drop to the $200 level anytime soon unless there are some really aggressive cuts made for the holiday season, so I'm still sticking with the stance that the format's stagnation has more to do with the software prices than hardware. By the time hardware drops to a consumer-friendly price, if the software sales still remain as slow as they are, their retail shelf space will continue to be equally small, and they have almost zero chance of being considered for a point of purchase placement without paying for it.

[Randy]

I will never have a use for a blue ray player for movies