Ukraine, Crude Oil and the Markets

[Easto]

In case no one's noticed the invasion just kicked the markets down another huge chunk. It was bad enough that we were in "correction" territory, but now with all these international antics it's not helping. I actually threw a chunk of money into one of my Funds yesterday when the market was down but I sure wish I would have waiting until today! I still have a bit of cash laying around that's looking to take advantage of this dip so it looks like I'll be sitting tight for a couple of days to see how this all plays out.

[YeOldeStonecat]

This one will take a while to climb back up, but yes....unless you're retiring within 5 years, this is a good time to buy. If not at least keep putting money in each week/month. It's a "buying opportunity".

Energy sector stocks may be permanently disrupted however....not sure how this will play out. With Russia now regaining control of the Ukraine...with the Ukraine being one of the worlds biggest resources of iron, coal, titanium, and other raw minerals (oh...and China recently grabbed Afghanistan...another massive resource or raw materials...)....

[Philip]

Market turned back since open, /NQ and NDX is back into positive territory. It will be very volatile for a while though, and it depends a lot on what happens next, after Ukraine.

Thinking about other former Soviet republics that Putin may be looking at. He also wants NATO out of Romania and Bulgaria (which is very unlikely to happen), but what would the west do? If he confronts a NATO nation directly then we'd have to intervene and it could potentially lead to the start of another World War.

[Philip]

Russia supplies 50% of Western Europe's energy, mainly through natural gas. 10+ years ago, there was a plan for "South Stream pipeline" going through Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria... then into Turkey, Italy. Since the political shift in Ukraine, the pipeline plan started drifting south... After Romania and Bulgaria joined NATO, and expressed some anti-russian thoughts, the pipeline plan changed to "Turk Stream". Putin rerouted the planned pipeline south through Turkey, and became friendlier with Turkey's Erdogan. He also sold them planes (even though they're in NATO), sided with them in Syria, etc., despite historical wars between Russia and Turkey.

A notable problem with Russia today is that Putin has friends, he is not isolated the way that the USSR was during the cold war. He's friendly with Turkey, China, etc. and we're antagonizing them (we devalued the Turkish currency, we imposed tariffs on China, etc.)

[Easto]

This one will take a while to climb back up, but yes....unless you're retiring within 5 years, this is a good time to buy. If not at least keep putting money in each week/month. It's a "buying opportunity".

Although I did retire 3 years ago I still invest with an attitude that US economy will always be the best place to put my money. It is mostly in Mutual Funds, some aggressive Growth and some Bond funds. I will continue to invest regularly and when the opportunity comes around I will invest some idle cash and get it working for me. Although I'm not sure how much further things may go down, I do realize that this seems to be a good time to jump in. Even if the dip continues I think we'll be back up to where we were 3 months ago within the next year or 2.

[YeOldeStonecat]

Although I did retire 3 years ago I still invest with an attitude that US economy will always be the best place to put my money. It is mostly in Mutual Funds, some aggressive Growth and some Bond funds. I will continue to invest regularly and when the opportunity comes around I will invest some idle cash and get it working for me. Although I'm not sure how much further things may go down, I do realize that this seems to be a good time to jump in. Even if the dip continues I think we'll be back up to where we were 3 months ago within the next year or 2.

Agree. Although I hope the " back where we were 3x months ago within the next 2 years" is closer to 1 than 2. But it's probably accurate. Depends how this plays out...still so much to be determined over there in Europe, and so many moving parts are just starting to move....

[Philip]

Prices will go up in Europe because of increased fuel costs, this will also affect the US to a lower extent.

[Easto]

Getting a feel for how things are going to move seems to have become much more difficult over the last 5 - 7 years. I mean, what are you to do when you see the markets swing 3% in a single day? What is really fueling that? Why aren't we seeing more long term trends? I can remember about 10 years ago I was feeling like I was doing good if the S&P 500 was going up 0.2% in a day. Now when I see it go up 2% in a day I may not know why or how, but I definitely know I made some money that day.

[BMED]

Led Zeppelin comps are always huge during these times, buy Aerosmith if you can....good luck!

[Philip]

Wild swings are due to a few factors in my opinion. There are periods where the market is choppy, we're definitely into one.
Also, the number of retail investors in the market has "skyrocketed" as Reuters' put it. The percentage of total market trades made by retail investors grew by 8% just in 2020, retail now represents maybe ~30% of total volume. A large portion of those are young people getting into the market I think the median age of Robin Hood customers is ~30yo.
Combine that with people's desire for quick profit, and the fact the market measures people's sentiment, their perception of reality and companies rather than fundamental financial analysis... And you have some wild rides ahead.

[Dennis Miller hat on] Of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong. [ / ]

[Easto]

I did the unthinkable and looked at my investment's bottom line since the 1st of the year and.... excuse me, I'm going to go sit in the corner and cry for a while.

J/K: But Damn! Depending on how things play out in the international scene over the next couple of month is going to decide how fast our market has a chance to rebound. I'm still putting my money on the 'ol USofA and plan on being back on top in 3-5 years.

[YeOldeStonecat]

I did the unthinkable and looked at my investment's bottom line since the 1st of the year and.... excuse me, I'm going to go sit in the corner and cry for a while.

Yeah, I peek at my 401 about once a week now, and cry.

But, gotta remember, from 2020...and prior years, it was climbing like crazy! I have well over 40% gains fairly steady for a while.
This slide will level off, and we'll see things start to climb again. May not be by this summer, or even end of summer...who knows, may not be til next year. But it'll return.
I'm not retiring within 5 years. A guy I work with is retiring inside of 3x years. A couple of years ago he shifted his 401 from a middle of the road balanced one....to mostly bonds. He played it safe, and when this poop hit the fan a couple of years ago and this slide happened...and my very aggressive one plummeted, his still stayed a positive path. Granted...just baby step gains of bonds...but no dips.

[Leatherneck]

24% of my pay goes into an 401K, 2 IRAs and company stock at a significant discount. My goal is to retire in 3 years so a little nervous. I have been told for 3-4 years that I am too aggressive at this point, but have done well. I have lost enough in the last few weeks to buy a Tesla, but I have faith........-ish.

[Philip]

Yeah, S&P500 is down more than 12% YTD, most portfolios are hurting. Still, long term stock market annual returns are 10%+, more than inflation, and more than bonds/defensive portfolios.

In retrospect, I should've gotten much more defensive right at the beginning of the conflict but I didn't believe it would happen/last, or deepen as much as it did. Now it seems there will be prolonged strained relations between the East and the West, which will likely keep the stock market depressed and very choppy for a while. It will come back, and there are always opportunities, just have to remember that short term it is direct reflection of peoples' fears and perception of reality, not necessarily hard facts and fundamental analysis.

[YeOldeStonecat]

Yup, remember....when the market drops, that's like stocks and funds "go on sale". Buying opportunity. Keep contributing and buying, when the market returns....THAT's where you really make a killing.

Thinking of grabbing some more AMD now that it's been down with the whole market, and with AMD recently getting the Tesla deal, it opened up doors with other auto makers using AMD...the next 5 years should be great with AMD stock.

[Easto]

Yup, remember....when the market drops, that's like stocks and funds "go on sale". Buying opportunity. Keep contributing and buying, when the market returns....THAT's where you really make a killing.

Right now I'm sitting on way too much cash and it is destined for the market. I'm thinking that rather than try and time this "dip" I'll just divide it up into quarters and make a purchase every month(?)

[Philip]

It's a good place to have been since last November... But there may be some light at the end of the tunnel, S&P500 rose 2.2% today. It will be interesting to see if it keeps the gains tomorrow.

[BMED]

Yep, everyone here is about to be screwed...with or without facts, stay safe!

[YeOldeStonecat]

Right now I'm sitting on way too much cash and it is destined for the market. I'm thinking that rather than try and time this "dip" I'll just divide it up into quarters and make a purchase every month(?)

Sounds like a good plan...stagger those purchases! Allows you to monitor things over a spread out time and make adjustments if necessary.