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Thread: Ukraine Conflict

  1. #1
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Ukraine Conflict

    Are you following what's happening in Ukraine, what are your thoughts, what's coming next? Putin seems determined that he doesn't want NATO stationed near Russia's borders, and his narrative is that Ukraine is full of Russian people, that NATO has been expanding in Eastern Europe contrary to prior agreements in the 1990s, etc. Seems China issued a statement against Western sanctions on Russia now.

    My random thoughts, whatever they're worth:

    1. The NATO expansion claim is kind of complicated, seems there were some very public speeches by western diplomats that assured no expansion in Eastern Europe, but it did expand from 18 to 30 members, and it did get kind of close to Russia. The flip side of that is there seem to be no formal agreement stating that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, or right on Russia's border.

    2. Putin is obviously a bully, and he is irritated by the diminished power and relevancy of Russia. He wants to expand back west somewhat, reclaiming former USSR territories with mixed russian-speaking population. He likes the fact he has some economic impact on Europe (the natural gas pipes, etc.). In his eyes, he's protecting his nation's interests, like the US would (he is doing something similar to what the US was prepared to do during the Cuban missile crisis), and he's trying to prove that Russia is a very relevant power in the World geopolitical stage.

    3. The US and Russia would not enter any direct military confrontation in my opinion, as this would likely mean the start of WW III. However, diplomacy has failed, we are at the economic sanctions stage. This is not some small country that can't handle western economic sanctions though, they can easily align with China, Pakistan, etc.

    Ultimately, the people of Ukraine are suffering, and that's a real issue.

    What do you think, how do you see this conflict playing out?
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    I really don't understand how such a small expansion of the Soviet empire is going to change their standing either at home or abroad. I just don't see the use in it. This is definitely a power-play by Putin with no understandable advantage. I too feel sorry for the people and I hope someone "blinks" and any casualties are kept to a minimum. It's a shame that people are going to die because of Putin's ego.

  3. #3
    SG Enthusiast Leatherneck's Avatar
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    This is one fertile, producing land. I would think that Putin may desire some of their resources

    Ukraine: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources
    The country has abundant reserves of natural resources, including coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury. The estimated GDP of Ukraine in 2018 was estimated to reach $131 billion, which is $19 billion more than it was in 2017. Overview of Resources
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    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leatherneck View Post
    This is one fertile, producing land. I would think that Putin may desire some of their resources

    Ukraine: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources
    The country has abundant reserves of natural resources, including coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury. The estimated GDP of Ukraine in 2018 was estimated to reach $131 billion, which is $19 billion more than it was in 2017. Overview of Resources
    That's my take on it too.

    Chock-full of exploitable resources, massive Black Sea territory and ports, buffer against western NATO expansion.

    Winging it here, but also payback for Ukraine's declaring state sovereignty in 1991, following Estonia in 1988 and Lithuania in 1990.
    I assume at that point the Soviet Union collapsed and Russians are still pissed. Politics are not my strong point though.

  5. #5
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    I think the western economies embargo, including Russian banks and especially the Nord2 gas pipeline offsets any natural resources financial gain he'd get by expanding into Ukraine. I totally agree with the rest about territorial tactical gains and nationalistic political gains.

  6. #6
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philip View Post
    I think the western economies embargo, including Russian banks and especially the Nord2 gas pipeline offsets any natural resources financial gain he'd get by expanding into Ukraine. I totally agree with the rest about territorial tactical gains and nationalistic political gains.
    Agreed, but I don't think it's about money.
    Money's huge but not in the scheme of things (guessing).

    Gains of territory and resources, deepwater ports and expanded control of the Black Sea, reclamation of former Soviet lands, buffering NATO and possibly setting the stage for disrupting/preventing potential future NATO acceptance of other countries.

    My thoughts.

  7. #7
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easto View Post
    I really don't understand how such a small expansion of the Soviet empire is going to change their standing either at home or abroad. I just don't see the use in it. This is definitely a power-play by Putin with no understandable advantage. I too feel sorry for the people and I hope someone "blinks" and any casualties are kept to a minimum. It's a shame that people are going to die because of Putin's ego.
    Fully agree on on the folks caught in the middle. I can't imagine.

    But no, Ukraine would not be a small expansion, it'd be huge.

    "During the 1946–1950 five-year plan, nearly 20% of the Soviet budget was invested in Soviet Ukraine"

    Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine
    Not the best reference but not the worst.

    I think it goes back at least that far.
    The Soviets invested heavily, Ukraine's output went up in industrial manufacturing, weapons, agriculture.

    41 years later they leave and the Soviet Union falls.
    Russians are still pissed and want their breadbasket back.

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    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    It's official, Russia launched full-scale attack invading Ukraine :/

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    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Yeah, I called that wrong. I was telling everyone I know that I was pretty sure Putin was going to back-off at the last minute and say "See, I told you it was just an exercise".

    Whether he gains access to the natural resources or not doesn't make this move a wise one in my mind. It just further reinforces the world's view that he is a bully.

  10. #10
    Moderator YeOldeStonecat's Avatar
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    Several months ago a lot of people were betting on "Mid to late Feb" for Putin to make his move....they were right on!

    Putin was waiting for his prime adversary to become weak...which we did not too long ago. The timing lines up.

    Some countries in Europe heavily rely on Russia for energy resources and other materials...so they can't step in against Putin.

    Some major shifting of resources and power has happened now.
    *Afghanistan....to China
    *Ukraine...back to Russia

    HUGE shifts of resources and power....going to our 2x enemies. The tight rope that the US has been walking with Russia, and China, is starting to fray and collapse.....we're not in fun times.
    And speaking of China...while the worlds eyes is focused (and distracted) on the Ukraine...watch how China is working towards Taiwan

    Last week Putin said (as part of his justification of the invasion)..."the Ukraine belongs to Ancient Russia". ...I'll add..."so did Alaska". Hoping Putin and Trudeau aren't talking behind the scenes.....
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  11. #11
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YeOldeStonecat View Post
    Last week Putin said (as part of his justification of the invasion)..."the Ukraine belongs to Ancient Russia".
    Some of what I'm hearing coming out of his mouth as justification for this invasion is insane. It was also extremely embarrassing hearing 45 praising Putin's prowess and the way he masterminded this invasion.

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    I'm more concerned about the illegal invasion of our southern boarder in the US and why it has been ignored by our administration for the past year and a half...$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

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    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMED View Post
    I'm more concerned about the illegal invasion of our southern boarder in the US and why it has been ignored by our administration for the past year and a half...$$
    Really? With everything that's going on in the world today that's at the top of your list? Although there's no doubt that illegal immigration does stress our system and economy I've been hearing and reading the same thing for the last 50 years, not just the "past year and a half". This is a cultural issue and has always been that way, it has very little to do with any administration past or present.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Easto View Post
    Really? With everything that's going on in the world today that's at the top of your list? Although there's no doubt that illegal immigration does stress our system and economy I've been hearing and reading the same thing for the last 50 years, not just the "past year and a half". This is a cultural issue and has always been that way, it has very little to do with any administration past or present.
    I never said it was at the top my list, read it again but slowly! I can dumb it down slowly for you if would help.
    Last edited by BMED; 02-28-22 at 11:13 PM.

  15. #15
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMED View Post
    I never said it was that it was at the top my list, read it again but slowly! I can dumb it down slowly for you if you prefer...
    I don't think you can dumb it down any further.

  16. #16
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMED View Post
    I never said it was at the top my list, read it again but slowly! I can dumb it down slowly for you if would help.
    I guess in the literal sense you are correct. You did not say it was at "the top of your list".

    But, if you're unable to see that you took a relatively unilateral thread regarding Ukraine and injected a somewhat amplified opinion (by the use of multiple $$) of Illegal immigration and that the problem is being "ignored" by the current administration, I think it would be reasonable to imply that if this is not at least at the top of your list, it's something that hovers in that neighborhood.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Easto View Post
    I guess in the literal sense you are correct. You did not say it was at "the top of your list".

    But, if you're unable to see that you took a relatively unilateral thread regarding Ukraine and injected a somewhat amplified opinion (by the use of multiple $$) of Illegal immigration and that the problem is being "ignored" by the current administration, I think it would be reasonable to imply that if this is not at least at the top of your list, it's something that hovers in that neighborhood.
    "Something that hovers in that neighborhood"...you really don't have a clue of what is going on around you in this world, do you?

  18. #18
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BMED View Post
    "Something that hovers in that neighborhood"...you really don't have a clue of what is going on around you in this world, do you?
    This seems uncalled for, I don't see the need for personal attacks.
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    Tortoises R0cks :D Rivas's Avatar
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    Hello everyone,

    it's not about money, this conflict will end up bad for Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. I'm uploading documentary video so you can understand Russian/Soviet thinking. It starts long before WW2, how Russia was controlling population in Ukraine, how Germany and Russia attacked Poland during WW2 and Finland as well. I hope youtube is not going to take down the video.
    https://youtu.be/SCJz4COHnLc
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  20. #20
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Hi Rivas, good to see you!
    Great video thank you for sharing. It explains a lot of the horrors, brutality and genocide that actually happened in the 20th century.

    Without condoning the invasion in any way, this is another informative video pointing out the role NATO played in the conflict after the iron curtain was lifted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
    Linux is user friendly, it's just picky about its friends...
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