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Thread: Stock Market

  1. #1
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Stock Market

    Do you think we're in for some growth with the new Administration? I know 2 days doesn't a fiscal year make. But, I think with industries not having to worry which way the wind is going to blow may have them thinking a bit more long term. I'm expecting a nice little bump over the next couple of weeks, another once Biden is inaugurated and them some slow steady growth. My portfolio is poised for some growth. Please be good to me, lol.

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    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Growth is where to be in the long term for sure imho, however, I still expect bumps in the road near term.
    The virus is still here and causing deaths every day, a lot of European countries and some US cities have reimplemented curfews and restrictions like closing bars/restaurants/malls/etc. It is far from over yet, and many businesses globally are hurting recording losses. The stimulus package and the Fed kept the US economy afloat by pouring a lot of money into it, but the market seems a bit overconfident to me, especially with the last couple of days rally. Most people that were in the market made money in the past 5 months, but will be ready to lock in their profits the moment it turns.. I would be very cautious in the next 3-4 months - a few negative headlines can spook the market easily when it is overweight. At the end it all depends on what the big fish do, the top 10% own over 85% of the stock market these days.

    Just my personal subjective 2c, past performance/predictions are not indicative of future returns yadayada and all that jazz
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  3. #3
    Conspiracy Fool knightmare's Avatar
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    What new administration are you talking about?

  4. #4
    Junior Member MadDoctor's Avatar
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    Something other than Trump.
    People will forget what you said... and people will forget what you did... but people will never forget how you made them feel.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Mostly I'm just counting on things stabilizing once we don't have someone in office that wants to spook the world's economy on a whim. I'll accept the normal ups and downs of the market, I just don't see all this shock therapy doing any good whatsoever.

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    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadDoctor View Post
    Something other than Trump.

  7. #7
    Well in the short term, quantitative easing has had a much larger effect on the price of capital goods than fiscal policy. In the long term I don't expect anything radically different in terms of fundamental growth rates. The president is steering a GIANT ship with a tiny rudder, his influence is overrated regardless of his party. This assumes you are buying an ETF or something that reflects the economy as a whole. Individual industries such as energy can be radically changed by governance.

  8. #8
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    I'm looking at things that have sunk given the current circumstances but are bound to come back...eventually.

    Airlines, cruises, hotels.

    Carnival Cruise? No one is cruising right now but in a couple of years?

    Basically half what it was.

    Just don't be in a hurry and don't wager anything you can't afford to lose.

  9. #9
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Good points KarlieBoe2, welcome to SG

    Humby, I bought some CCL when it was 15, sold it to lock in some profit. Sold some options too. They are a huge company with a lot of cash reserves (7+billion) so they can wait it out, even though they are burning 500m+ per month. Short term I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit because of the new coronavirus strain in the UK.
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  10. #10
    Assistant Admin Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philip View Post
    ...I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit ...
    Was the pun intended? LOL

    From merely a financial perspective, Trump is going to be hard to beat. It is a shame that covid came out of nowhere and no one knew what to expect,...at least from a private citizen perspective...

    Unfortunately I believe that our world is forever going to change as a result.

    Private China keeps the dollar propped up, if they fail, we fail and vice-versa... (Not the communist government)

    The dollar's up, down, you better buy the pound[/ AC/DC]
    Edited to add...
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  11. #11
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Was the pun intended? LOL
    Only partially, for one of the industries
    Linux is user friendly, it's just picky about its friends...
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  12. #12
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Today, so far:
    CCL -5.3%
    AAL -3.6%
    Linux is user friendly, it's just picky about its friends...
    Disclaimer: Please use caution when opening messages, my grasp on reality may have shaken loose during transmission (going on rusty memory circuits).
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  13. #13
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    If I was younger and a bit more of a gambling man I would seriously consider a Cruise Line stock. The problem is there is too much time between now and when Covid recedes enough for them to start making money. And that's a lot of time to consider bankruptcy.

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