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Thread: Stock Market

  1. #1
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Stock Market

    Do you think we're in for some growth with the new Administration? I know 2 days doesn't a fiscal year make. But, I think with industries not having to worry which way the wind is going to blow may have them thinking a bit more long term. I'm expecting a nice little bump over the next couple of weeks, another once Biden is inaugurated and them some slow steady growth. My portfolio is poised for some growth. Please be good to me, lol.

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    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Growth is where to be in the long term for sure imho, however, I still expect bumps in the road near term.
    The virus is still here and causing deaths every day, a lot of European countries and some US cities have reimplemented curfews and restrictions like closing bars/restaurants/malls/etc. It is far from over yet, and many businesses globally are hurting recording losses. The stimulus package and the Fed kept the US economy afloat by pouring a lot of money into it, but the market seems a bit overconfident to me, especially with the last couple of days rally. Most people that were in the market made money in the past 5 months, but will be ready to lock in their profits the moment it turns.. I would be very cautious in the next 3-4 months - a few negative headlines can spook the market easily when it is overweight. At the end it all depends on what the big fish do, the top 10% own over 85% of the stock market these days.

    Just my personal subjective 2c, past performance/predictions are not indicative of future returns yadayada and all that jazz
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  3. #3
    Conspiracy Fool knightmare's Avatar
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    What new administration are you talking about?

  4. #4
    Junior Member MadDoctor's Avatar
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    Something other than Trump.
    People will forget what you said... and people will forget what you did... but people will never forget how you made them feel.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Mostly I'm just counting on things stabilizing once we don't have someone in office that wants to spook the world's economy on a whim. I'll accept the normal ups and downs of the market, I just don't see all this shock therapy doing any good whatsoever.

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    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadDoctor View Post
    Something other than Trump.

  7. #7
    Well in the short term, quantitative easing has had a much larger effect on the price of capital goods than fiscal policy. In the long term I don't expect anything radically different in terms of fundamental growth rates. The president is steering a GIANT ship with a tiny rudder, his influence is overrated regardless of his party. This assumes you are buying an ETF or something that reflects the economy as a whole. Individual industries such as energy can be radically changed by governance.

  8. #8
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    I'm looking at things that have sunk given the current circumstances but are bound to come back...eventually.

    Airlines, cruises, hotels.

    Carnival Cruise? No one is cruising right now but in a couple of years?

    Basically half what it was.

    Just don't be in a hurry and don't wager anything you can't afford to lose.

  9. #9
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Good points KarlieBoe2, welcome to SG

    Humby, I bought some CCL when it was 15, sold it to lock in some profit. Sold some options too. They are a huge company with a lot of cash reserves (7+billion) so they can wait it out, even though they are burning 500m+ per month. Short term I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit because of the new coronavirus strain in the UK.
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    Assistant Admin Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philip View Post
    ...I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit ...
    Was the pun intended? LOL

    From merely a financial perspective, Trump is going to be hard to beat. It is a shame that covid came out of nowhere and no one knew what to expect,...at least from a private citizen perspective...

    Unfortunately I believe that our world is forever going to change as a result.

    Private China keeps the dollar propped up, if they fail, we fail and vice-versa... (Not the communist government)

    The dollar's up, down, you better buy the pound[/ AC/DC]
    Edited to add...
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  11. #11
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    Was the pun intended? LOL
    Only partially, for one of the industries
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  12. #12
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    Today, so far:
    CCL -5.3%
    AAL -3.6%
    Linux is user friendly, it's just picky about its friends...
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  13. #13
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    If I was younger and a bit more of a gambling man I would seriously consider a Cruise Line stock. The problem is there is too much time between now and when Covid recedes enough for them to start making money. And that's a lot of time to consider bankruptcy.

  14. #14
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    I usually don't like to revive old threads but I thought this might be in order.

    CCL has done really good since Philip's last post. Also, with the latest news regarding applications for unemployment and covid receding I think we're in for some good times. Everyone seems to agree that there's no where else but up (feel free to revive this thread 6 months from now when we're in a recession).

  15. #15
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easto View Post
    I usually don't like to revive old threads but I thought this might be in order.

    CCL has done really good since Philip's last post. Also, with the latest news regarding applications for unemployment and covid receding I think we're in for some good times. Everyone seems to agree that there's no where else but up (feel free to revive this thread 6 months from now when we're in a recession).
    Was about to respond to your previous comment...Fingers crossed, but I agree with Philip, they've got enough reserve to wait it out, despite the unknowns.

    Wish I'd had enough to buy more at $18.50 about 6 months ago.

  16. #16
    Moderator YeOldeStonecat's Avatar
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    I'm looking forward to stocks climbing again. Esp tech stocks...I've been playing in those for the past couple of years.

    Picked up Ubiquiti stock about 2 years ago...it was around 140 per. Ubiquiti makes network hardware, more noted for wireless...including outdoor and long range point to point. I sell/install it by the truckload....so I contribute what I can. It had done great up until this past Feb...when news leaked about a major breach they had via one of their employees. It was a really bad breach. Their stock has juuuuust hit 400 bucks a pop! It's down in the 280's now...so I've pretty much doubled that stock..hope it gets back up mid 300's again soon. Doubt it will bump 400 again.

    AMD...their stock has been doing well..especially since the Ryzen processor came out, I've picked up lumps of it starting about 2 years ago when it was around 40 bucks...it's been up in the high 90's...settling down around the high 80's with this early year dip. I just put an order in to snag a bunch more during this lull, as they juuuuust announced (sorta leaked I think) news up of their upcoming 5nm chip..the Zen 4 Raphael. Due out end of next year, so...stock may slowly rise soon and bake that in...or..may take a while to rise. But I'm in AMD for the long haul..making them the largest single stock in my 401 outside of the regular funds. Some I know bought 40k worth back when it was about 11 bucks a share....about 4 years ago. Run those numbers in a compound interest calculator. In his words..."It was a retirement altering decision!"

    So I've seen around 100% climb with those 2.

    Google is a steady riser.

    QQQ is a good "tech stock ETF".

    Think it's about time to purchase some airline stock. We're South West fliers ourselves...it's what we use to go to FL the couple of trips we make each year. Flights were nice and empty this past year, and CHEAP! There's an airline ETF called JETS which I'll get some of. It's already been climbing since mid Feb. Won't put a lot in it...sorta already missed that boat, time to buy was last summer when it was chump change. But it still has some room to get back to where it was.

    Anyways, yeah..enjoyed the booming economy for the past 3+ years...was bummed to see it flatten out this past winter. Hopefully the "got a grip on COVID" thing will start bringing it back....although I don't expect to see it at such high returns as say...the past 2-1 years.
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  17. #17
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by YeOldeStonecat View Post
    I'm looking forward to stocks climbing again. Esp tech stocks...I've been playing in those for the past couple of years.
    I think you're very wise and a lot of investors should take your approach... invest in an industry that you know and understand. Also particularly helpful when you're in the same industry.

  18. #18
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    I like AMD after Ryzen. They should also get a bump from the video card market with the crypto craze. I like INTC for good fundamentals and AI. IBM is great for AI/Cloud computing, business services, etc. QCOM will benefit from 5G. MU is good. Some semiconductor stocks will do well too imho.
    I don't like UI at these prices, it was less than 200 a year ago.. Maybe if it goes under 250 I will bite. It trades at higher PE ratio than CSCO, JNPR and some others in the sector.

    As far as travel, yeah, airlines should bounce back some more. Southwest (LUV) has pretty solid fundamentals and a lot more cash compared to others like AAL, DAL, UAL, SKYW, however, its stock is already higher than before the pandemic so I am kind of on the fence on it.

    US Cannabis stocks will also do well if congress legalizes MJ, but that's very speculative play.

    I am afraid that with all those money printed in the past year, we may be headed towards inflation territory soon, and the Fed may be forced to increase interest rates before the projected 2023. Market seems kind of hot, should correct at some point and have more volatility. There are all kinds of retail investors that think they are experts now, since it is easy to make money when the market is going up, college kids and meme stocks in the news like GME and AMC heh. Crypto I can understand, but WallStreetBets/meme-stocks and those short squeezes are a bit too crazy.

    Just my personal 2c, adjusted for inflation
    Linux is user friendly, it's just picky about its friends...
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  19. #19
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philip View Post
    US Cannabis stocks will also do well if congress legalizes MJ, but that's very speculative play.
    I've always been interested on how the whole Cannabis market will move, but I'm not sure it will really explode. I think initially everyone thought that all these pot smokers were going to come out of the woodwork and the industry would go crazy. About a year ago we had a dispensary open near/in our neighborhood. There was all sorts of speculation as to whether it was going to attract crime and all the usual concerns you see posted in neighborhood forums. It actually turned out to be just like any other store. It's a converted corner gas stations so there's no adjacent businesses and people just drive and park, come and go. It's very well run. There aren't people hanging around the neighborhood and stuff like that. Unless you knew it was a dispensary you'd probably not even know what it was. No big Green crosses etc. Just a local business. It's not overrun with customers which makes me think that this sort of business might grow, but there's no way it would explode.

  20. #20
    Moderator YeOldeStonecat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Philip View Post

    US Cannabis stocks will also do well if congress legalizes MJ, but that's very speculative play.

    I am afraid that with all those money printed in the past year, we may be headed towards inflation territory soon, and the Fed may be forced to increase interest rates before the projected 2023. Market seems kind of hot, should correct at some point and have more volatility.

    RE: Pot stocks...I haven't been able to figure those out. I'm sure it requires some inside knowledge that I can't get a glimpse of. I've tried picking up a few piles of it, but I've mostly lost money all that I've dove in on. Nothing big...just dabble with a few pocket fulls of money. But since many are OTCs if you lose...you lose, fold and sell what's left..you get that double whammy of fees just to sting you more on the way out. I'm still holding some ETF pot stock....MSOS..intend on holding onto that for a while.

    Also agree that we'll see a good "adjustment" soon. Inflation...yes, to a degree. Can't print all this free money and not have inflation. And I'm sure the gov't will bump interest rates. I don't think the low interest rates are as dangerous as they were back in the '06 crash. Banks were reckless in loaning back then. Banks are quite strict now....even with low rates, they're still careful in giving out loans.

    ...however...related to banks...this "mortgage/rent forgiveness" thing is starting to have consequences. While many people are legitimately leaning on this, naturally a LOT of people are also abusing it. The banks are bleeding with so many people claiming they cannot pay their mortgage. And landlords are bleeding..with so many tenants claiming they cannot pay their rent.

    Re: short squeezes...yeah there's a forum I'm in where there's a real old/long thread from some day traders. It's amazing to watch a small hand full of them work the market.....ramping runs, and pump 'm dumps. Usually all just in the early and mid hours of the morning...you'll see them coordinate on the forum...go on buying runs...sit for a little rise...and then coordinate again when to dump. And they do it in large volume. Usually penny stocks...and other OTCs.
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