Stock Market

[Easto]

Do you think we're in for some growth with the new Administration? I know 2 days doesn't a fiscal year make. But, I think with industries not having to worry which way the wind is going to blow may have them thinking a bit more long term. I'm expecting a nice little bump over the next couple of weeks, another once Biden is inaugurated and them some slow steady growth. My portfolio is poised for some growth. Please be good to me, lol.

[Philip]

Growth is where to be in the long term for sure imho, however, I still expect bumps in the road near term.
The virus is still here and causing deaths every day, a lot of European countries and some US cities have reimplemented curfews and restrictions like closing bars/restaurants/malls/etc. It is far from over yet, and many businesses globally are hurting recording losses. The stimulus package and the Fed kept the US economy afloat by pouring a lot of money into it, but the market seems a bit overconfident to me, especially with the last couple of days rally. Most people that were in the market made money in the past 5 months, but will be ready to lock in their profits the moment it turns.. I would be very cautious in the next 3-4 months - a few negative headlines can spook the market easily when it is overweight. At the end it all depends on what the big fish do, the top 10% own over 85% of the stock market these days.

Just my personal subjective 2c, past performance/predictions are not indicative of future returns yadayada and all that jazz

[knightmare]

What new administration are you talking about?

[MadDoctor]

Something other than Trump.

[Easto]

Mostly I'm just counting on things stabilizing once we don't have someone in office that wants to spook the world's economy on a whim. I'll accept the normal ups and downs of the market, I just don't see all this shock therapy doing any good whatsoever.

[Humboldt]

Something other than Trump.

[KarlieBoe2]

Well in the short term, quantitative easing has had a much larger effect on the price of capital goods than fiscal policy. In the long term I don't expect anything radically different in terms of fundamental growth rates. The president is steering a GIANT ship with a tiny rudder, his influence is overrated regardless of his party. This assumes you are buying an ETF or something that reflects the economy as a whole. Individual industries such as energy can be radically changed by governance.

[Humboldt]

I'm looking at things that have sunk given the current circumstances but are bound to come back...eventually.

Airlines, cruises, hotels.

Carnival Cruise? No one is cruising right now but in a couple of years?

Basically half what it was.

Just don't be in a hurry and don't wager anything you can't afford to lose.

[Philip]

Good points KarlieBoe2, welcome to SG

Humby, I bought some CCL when it was 15, sold it to lock in some profit. Sold some options too. They are a huge company with a lot of cash reserves (7+billion) so they can wait it out, even though they are burning 500m+ per month. Short term I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit because of the new coronavirus strain in the UK.

[Ken]

...I think cruises and airlines may sink a bit ...

Was the pun intended? LOL

From merely a financial perspective, Trump is going to be hard to beat. It is a shame that covid came out of nowhere and no one knew what to expect,...at least from a private citizen perspective...

Unfortunately I believe that our world is forever going to change as a result.

Private China keeps the dollar propped up, if they fail, we fail and vice-versa... (Not the communist government)

The dollar's up, down, you better buy the pound[/ AC/DC]
Edited to add...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lqdErI9uss

[Philip]

Was the pun intended? LOL

Only partially, for one of the industries

[Philip]

Today, so far:
CCL -5.3%
AAL -3.6%

[Easto]

If I was younger and a bit more of a gambling man I would seriously consider a Cruise Line stock. The problem is there is too much time between now and when Covid recedes enough for them to start making money. And that's a lot of time to consider bankruptcy.