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Thread: Presidential Election

  1. #21
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cybotron r_9 View Post
    Thanks, so nothing there about bleach...got it
    Doesn't really change how stupid his statements were.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  2. #22
    Senior Member Easto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cybotron r_9 View Post
    Thanks, so nothing there about bleach...got it
    I misquoted. Disinfectant. Regardless, his statements don't strike you as absurd? He once ask at a meeting of pharmaceutical executives...

    “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that would have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?” he said.

    “No… probably none,” Mr Schleifer replied.

    ... after touting how intelligent he is he doesn't even understand how a vaccine works. I think every mom in the country understands how they work.

  3. #23
    Assistant Admin Ken's Avatar
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    The only thing about the election that bothered me was the Democrats legally buying votes.

    Down here in Hillsborough County alone, a Democratic group paid $1.5 million dollars in fines for felons so they could vote. Just 1 county... They certainly were not white collar felons...
    Fines of convicted felons are a part of their restitution, their debt to society...

    I could just imagine Republicans pulling a stunt like that! LMAO!

    Perhaps soon, people will be able to send substitutes for their prison time...

  4. #24
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    The only thing about the election that bothered me was the Democrats legally buying votes.

    Down here in Hillsborough County alone, a Democratic group paid $1.5 million dollars in fines for felons so they could vote. Just 1 county... They certainly were not white collar felons...
    Fines of convicted felons are a part of their restitution, their debt to society...

    I could just imagine Republicans pulling a stunt like that! LMAO!

    Perhaps soon, people will be able to send substitutes for their prison time...
    What bothers me the most about the election is all the nonsense people spread about it on the Internet, especially our current President. The Internet has become a giant trash bin, where people just dig up whatever piece of garbage that supports their views, instead of applying critical thinking skills.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  5. #25
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    I am not certain about the polls myself. One would have thought they would have a better understanding and improved metrics.
    One might surmise that some shenanigans are afoot, but without actually proof I wouldn't purport as such.

    Who would think that dishonesty exists in politics.

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  6. #26
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Ken,

    Actually, I have to agree with you on that one. However, acting on bad faith is something that we have seen aplenty over the past number of years.

    Question, have read the article on the shill candidates in Florida used to dilute congressional votes?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1721956.html

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  7. #27
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David View Post
    I am not certain about the polls myself. One would have thought they would have a better understanding and improved metrics.
    One might surmise that some shenanigans are afoot, but without actually proof I wouldn't purport as such.

    Who would think that dishonesty exists in politics.
    This is why statistics should be taught in public schools. So that instead of alluding to possible "shenanigans" one could point them out. I don’t buy into these grand conspiracy theories involving the polls and generally consider them to be silly. However, when I have doubts about a poll, I look at its methodology and look for mistakes in their approach.

    This is what people should be doing, but the sad truth is that Americans suffer from a lack of data literacy. I, personally, recommend people pick up an intro stats book, because we certainly live in the age of data and if you don’t know how to read a statistical analysis for yourself, you are left trusting someone else to tell you what it means.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  8. #28
    Assistant Admin Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David View Post
    Ken,

    Actually, I have to agree with you on that one. However, acting on bad faith is something that we have seen aplenty over the past number of years.

    Question, have read the article on the shill candidates in Florida used to dilute congressional votes?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1721956.html
    Around election time, I don't tend to listen to news much so I can't say that I have heard of this, this time. Wouldn't surprise me as those tactics have been used in Presidential and other elections past. Splitting the vote, or diluting them, so to speak.

    I do know of the big deal that was made over paying fines for felons. You couldn't get away from it. The group with their huge game show style check for $1.5 million and the felons on live TV saying how happy they were that they could vote. Couldn't get away from that, buying votes, plain and simple... And that was just Hillsborough County- Tampa. No doubt the same in many other locations...

    I did hear of some arrests locally involving people voting using recently deceased relatives 'vote by mail' ballots. You should hear them studdering and stalling for excuses while the cameras were on them! One of the best, "That's who my mama would have voted for"!
    IMHO they should pursue along those lines as voter fraud serves nothing good...

  9. #29
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Jeremy,

    Moreover, it is an understanding of scientific methodology. Knowing where the polls were drawn, sampling size, age, sex and ethnicity. It is assumed that they are responsible taken, however the results are being sold to specific new sources to play to their given audience.
    At this point, I ignore these numbers.

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  10. #30
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Ken,


    We heard about it here for about three days, but it became justifiable after the ramming of ACB into the Supreme court. The cemetery was matched by the multiple Trump ballot confessed by many on Left wing news sources. Fearless leader suggested it at one of his rallies, so I wouldn't be surprised.

    I didn't me to jump in to be an angry ghost of christmas past. SG allowed for respectfully banter, which the echo chamber driven SM site do not.

    be well,
    david

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  11. #31
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David View Post
    Jeremy,

    Moreover, it is an understanding of scientific methodology. Knowing where the polls were drawn, sampling size, age, sex and ethnicity. It is assumed that they are responsible taken, however the results are being sold to specific new sources to play to their given audience.
    At this point, I ignore these numbers.
    Sampling for a poll is part of the statistical process and it is certainly one of the major elements you should be looking at when assessing an analysis. Don't just assume it was all reasonably done, double-check it and if a statistical analysis you are looking at does not detail how sampling was done, stop reading that poll, as it is trash. A decent media source is not going to just list you a bunch of statistics without citing their source. So take it upon yourself to check up on the cited source, the actual analysis itself.

    I think you are placing too much blame on the media. I know everyone loves to hate the media, but for the last few decades, the scientific community has dropped the ball and largely due to their casual approach to statistics. Don't trust them to do it correctly, double-check their work for yourself, and if you can't properly read an analysis, learn how. I mean just think about how fast some of these polls are turned out. The time frame is just not realistic for a larger scale statistical analysis. It is crap work, and when you do crap work you get crap results.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis

    The bottom line is, that you need to take it upon yourself to be informed well enough to make sure the results you are looking at are reliable enough. Also, an informed public would help keep media sources honest.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  12. #32
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Jeremy,

    You think I do not understand cognitive dissonance?

    Scientific methodologies require that all aspects of the procedure (such as an experiment) are to be listed. Otherwise, the results cannot be duplicated, therefore unverifiable. It is critical when statisticians are looking into predictability models.
    Last edited by David; 11-18-20 at 04:22 PM.

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  13. #33
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David View Post
    Jeremy,

    Scientific methodologies require that all aspects of the procedure (such as an experiment) are to be listed. Otherwise, the results cannot be duplicated, therefore unverifiable. It is critical when statisticians are looking into predictability models.
    It is a bit more involved than that, David. Statistics is what is known as a formal science, meaning it cannot conclude with the same certainty the validity of its observations. Unlike the natural sciences, Statistics is the science of uncertainty, instead of certainty. So while the mathematical deductive steps for many statistical methods are sound and well established mathematically, it is still a process housed inside inductive reasoning. This means that in order for a considered statistical model to be reliable the researcher has to meet certain assumptions, and while there are diagnostic methods to examine if you meet those assumptions there is also a significant subjective component. So even if they properly detail every step, it may be that their results cannot be replicated because they overlooked some aspect of the considered population or miss assessed some assumptions.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  14. #34
    Junior Member MadDoctor's Avatar
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    Flip a coin.....
    People will forget what you said... and people will forget what you did... but people will never forget how you made them feel.

  15. #35
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Jeremy,

    Putting aside further arguments of semantics

    https://scse.d.umn.edu/about/departm...ment/what-math


    At its essence, statistics is a listing of data. As it progresses, it relies on formulae to draw conclusions and make assessments.
    For instance, when prescribing medication. Fluoroquinolones are a highly effective class of antibiotics. However, it is noted that cases of Achilles tendon rupture have occurred with patients receiving Levaquin and Cipro. The information is drawn and a rate of approximately 1% of the population receiving this drug have had incidence of tendon and ligament damage. This is of course not an absolute, however it places the usage of this class of drugs further down the list in choices when treating an infection.

    Agreed that it does not prove cause, it can be used in decision making.
    Last edited by David; 11-19-20 at 06:05 PM. Reason: clarity

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  16. #36
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David View Post
    Jeremy,

    Putting aside further arguments of semantics

    https://scse.d.umn.edu/about/departm...ment/what-math


    At its essence, statistics is a listing of data. As it progresses, it relies on formulae to draw conclusions and make assessments.
    For instance, when prescribing medication. Fluoroquinolones are a highly effective class of antibiotics. However, it is noted that cases of Achilles tendon rupture have occurred with patients receiving Levaquin and Cipro. The information is drawn and a rate of approximately 1% of the population receiving this drug have had incidence of tendon and ligament damage. This is of course not an absolute, however it places the usage of this class of drugs further down the list in choices when treating an infection.

    Agreed that it does not prove cause, it can be used in decision making.
    David, I have a B.S. in mathematics with a focus on Statistics and I am nearly done with a M.S. in Statistics. I also teach introductory statistics here at the university; that is how I am putting myself through grad school. So not only I am a more informative source than your web link, but this also is not a simple matter of semantics to me, this is something that is important to me.

    Statistics is an evidence-gathering process to help inform the decisions we make, but as I said in order for a statistical model to be interpretable and in order to draw reliable inferences from it you have to meet certain assumptions. Sometimes it is easier to verify those assumptions and sometimes it is not (which is very much related to the complexity of the model being considered), and sometimes a model is proven because it has become well established over time.

    Getting back to polls in the media:

    If a news outlet properly cites their source and you don't check the actual statistical analysis yourself, then you have no room to blame that news outlet for misleading you.
    Also, if you do not know how to check some basic aspects of a statistical analysis, yourself, to make sure it was done properly, then you are not doing your duty as an informed US citizen.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  17. #37
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Jeremy,

    Why are you arguing with me?

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  18. #38
    Freedom Fighter jeremyboycool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by David View Post
    Jeremy,

    Why are you arguing with me?
    I am not, David. I was trying to have a conversation, despite you trying to wave away everything I was saying as " arguments of semantics".
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." - Stephen Hawking

  19. #39
    Moderator David's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeremyboycool View Post
    I am not, David. I was trying to have a conversation, despite you trying to wave away everything I was saying as " arguments of semantics".
    No... you are arguing. You are trying to convince me that I am somehow incompetent of a skill I use everyday.

    Hell_Yes

    Luck is where preparation meets opportunity - Seneca

    "Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'" - Isaac Asimov

    It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book. - Friedrich Nietzsche

  20. #40
    Administrator Philip's Avatar
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    We sometimes come across differently than intended, especially when we feel strongly about a subject and put away niceties to get to its substance.

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