Presidential Election

**Philip** · 11-04-20, 09:57 AM

What do you guys think of this election?

I foresee results being recounted and contested in a few states as margins are razor thin: Wisconsin <20k difference, Michigan <10k, Nevada <8k, etc.
All this is way closer than all the polls predicted again. It is a bit surprising, as polling is supposed to be based on statistics and science, not bias.

Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if results and recounts get challenged all the way to the Supreme Court again. There will be questions raised about the legitimacy of the voting process and the presidency again, whoever wins it seems.

**YARDofSTUF** · 11-04-20, 11:00 AM

I'm surprised how many people are happy with trump and with how he is handling the pandemic. Looks like Biden will win a close one. Senate race is more interesting, along with how close Texas was.

That 2am speech was the **** show I was expecting. LOL

**jeremyboycool** · 11-04-20, 11:22 AM

Originally Posted by YARDofSTUF

I'm surprised how many people are happy with trump and with how he is handling the pandemic. Looks like Biden will win a close one. Senate race is more interesting, along with how close Texas was.

That 2am speech was the **** show I was expecting. LOL

The fact that so many people vote for Trump, has made me lose a lot of faith and respect for my fellow Americans.

**Easto** · 11-04-20, 11:36 AM

Originally Posted by jeremyboycool

The fact that so many people vote for Trump, has made me lose a lot of faith and respect for my fellow Americans.

My thoughts exactly. I mean, the whole general assembly of the United Nations laughed at him. The level of his stupidity... Bleach? I could go on and on but there are websites out there that have itemized and categorized his blunders and mistakes.

**Philip** · 11-04-20, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by Easto

My thoughts exactly. I mean, the whole general assembly of the United Nations laughed at him. The level of his stupidity... Bleach? I could go on and on but there are websites out there that have itemized and categorized his blunders and mistakes.

True. At the same time he has a lot of support, he is popular. In this election, Trump has more votes so far (67,233,126) than Obama during his second term re-election in 2012 (65,915,795). I am surprised he won Florida so easily, I was expecting a much closer race here too.

**jeremyboycool** · 11-04-20, 12:20 PM

Originally Posted by Philip

True. At the same time he has a lot of support, he is popular. In this election, Trump has more votes so far (67,233,126) than Obama during his second term re-election in 2012 (65,915,795).

Could that have something to do with the record turnout in this election?

**cybotron r_9** · 11-05-20, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by Easto

My thoughts exactly. I mean, the whole general assembly of the United Nations laughed at him. The level of his stupidity... Bleach? I could go on and on but there are websites out there that have itemized and categorized his blunders and mistakes.

What about bleach?

**jeremyboycool** · 11-05-20, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by cybotron r_9

What about bleach?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52407177

**Philip** · 11-04-20, 11:12 AM

I didn't wait till 2AM for the speech, but it seems like it was the bomb. This will drag for weeks with the recounts and challenges, I am sure I will get plenty of chances to listen to his speeches, heh.

**jeremyboycool** · 11-04-20, 11:16 AM

Originally Posted by Philip

It is a bit surprising, as polling is supposed to be based on statistics and science, not bias.

It has much less to do with bias in the polls and more to do with the difficulty of trying to mathematize human behavior on such a large and diverse scale. I promise the people running for election don't want bias polls no matter what side they are on. People want accurate polls, but the actual act of predicting human behavior for something like an election is just not an easy task. Biden will likely win the popular vote, just like Clinton did in 2016. So many of the polls are not actually wrong, it is just our voting system does not always reflect what the majority wants.

**Philip** · 11-04-20, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by jeremyboycool

It has much less to do with bias in the polls and more to do with the difficulty of trying to mathematize human behavior on such a large and diverse scale. I promise the people running for election don't want bias polls no matter what side they are on. People want accurate polls, but the actual act of predicting human behavior for something like an election is just not an easy task. Biden will likely win the popular vote, just like Clinton did in 2016. So many of the polls are not actually wrong, it is just our voting system does not always reflect what the majority wants.

Just the mere fact that most polls were so off 4 years ago made me predict they would get it wrong this time, they didn't do much better and were skewed to the same side. I realize there are many variables to the equation and it is not easy, but we seem to be putting too much emphasis on polling, and it is not accurate.

**jeremyboycool** · 11-04-20, 12:19 PM

Originally Posted by Philip

Just the mere fact that most polls were so off 4 years ago made me predict they would get it wrong this time, they didn't do much better and were skewed to the same side. I realize there are many variables to the equation and it is not easy, but we seem to be putting too much emphasis on polling, and it is not accurate.

I didn't see the emphasis put on the polls as you are suggesting. This year whenever a source I was viewing talked about polls they also mentioned that these polls may be misleading due to a number of factors.

Which, btw, is what statistics is supposed to do. It is a process of looking at the data to try and understand a system that is too complicated to directly observe, but it is a process of examining evidence, it was never meant to create facts or do our thinking for us. When you look at a statistical analysis you need to also consider the limitations, and I saw a lot more of that going on this year than in 2016.

Also, when you say the polls are "not accurate", there is accuracy in methods and accuracy in prediction, these are two separate things. You can follow all the right steps in your analysis and still have mispredictions, especially when it comes to something like elections. It could be that people who planned to vote for Biden were just more willing to express that than people who planned to vote for Trump. Or it could be that people who said they would vote one way, never actually went to vote.

***David*** · 11-17-20, 04:09 PM

I am not certain about the polls myself. One would have thought they would have a better understanding and improved metrics.
One might surmise that some shenanigans are afoot, but without actually proof I wouldn't purport as such.

Who would think that dishonesty exists in politics.

**jeremyboycool** · 11-17-20, 04:33 PM

Originally Posted by David

I am not certain about the polls myself. One would have thought they would have a better understanding and improved metrics.
One might surmise that some shenanigans are afoot, but without actually proof I wouldn't purport as such.

Who would think that dishonesty exists in politics.

This is why statistics should be taught in public schools. So that instead of alluding to possible "shenanigans" one could point them out. I don’t buy into these grand conspiracy theories involving the polls and generally consider them to be silly. However, when I have doubts about a poll, I look at its methodology and look for mistakes in their approach.

This is what people should be doing, but the sad truth is that Americans suffer from a lack of data literacy. I, personally, recommend people pick up an intro stats book, because we certainly live in the age of data and if you don’t know how to read a statistical analysis for yourself, you are left trusting someone else to tell you what it means.

***David*** · 11-17-20, 05:11 PM

Jeremy,

Moreover, it is an understanding of scientific methodology. Knowing where the polls were drawn, sampling size, age, sex and ethnicity. It is assumed that they are responsible taken, however the results are being sold to specific new sources to play to their given audience.
At this point, I ignore these numbers.

***YeOldeStonecat*** · 11-04-20, 08:11 PM

Originally Posted by Philip

What do you guys think of this election?.

Blech
Will be getting cozy with china again....
Biden will have something happen to him, corrupt cameltoe with bring in sanders and aoc or others from kommifornia and we'll be in a world of hurt.

Ah well, Republicans will for the most part move on with their lives...going to work and trying to make money, instead of running around on unemployment and ransacking and burning cities.

But with hiden at the helm, unfortunately this overhyped plandemic will be become his focus. Ridiculous how politicized it got...thing just has to run its course, people need to move on and work and be productive. It's all around the world. What do liberals want..a gov't to lock the citizens in their homes, arrest them if found in the streets? Weld their front doors shut?

**YARDofSTUF** · 11-05-20, 02:15 PM

Originally Posted by YeOldeStonecat

Blech
Will be getting cozy with china again....
Biden will have something happen to him, corrupt cameltoe with bring in sanders and aoc or others from kommifornia and we'll be in a world of hurt.

Ah well, Republicans will for the most part move on with their lives...going to work and trying to make money, instead of running around on unemployment and ransacking and burning cities.

But with hiden at the helm, unfortunately this overhyped plandemic will be become his focus. Ridiculous how politicized it got...thing just has to run its course, people need to move on and work and be productive. It's all around the world. What do liberals want..a gov't to lock the citizens in their homes, arrest them if found in the streets? Weld their front doors shut?

With a Biden win the dem party falls apart fully in 4 years and team red comes back in. As for the pandemic, its sad wearing a mask became political, but its also sad how many people put money above everything else. We don't need people locked in their homes, we need them to be smart, and thats much more difficult.

**jeremyboycool** · 11-05-20, 04:25 PM

Originally Posted by YARDofSTUF

With a Biden win the dem party falls apart fully in 4 years and team red comes back in. As for the pandemic, its sad wearing a mask became political, but its also sad how many people put money above everything else. We don't need people locked in their homes, we need them to be smart, and thats much more difficult.

This is not really about "team red" vs. "team blue", I mean I am sure to some extent that is true, but really this is team anyone-else vs team Trump. Biden was not nominated for the Left, he was nominated for all the people that may not typically vote for Dems, but are now willing to do so just to vote Trump out.

**jeremyboycool** · 11-04-20, 09:23 PM

Trump still has a chance, but at this time it is looking like a Biden win. If Biden wins, it will be an interesting next few months and of course, there will be salty tears, but with Trump out of the office maybe we can start to heal this division between the Left and Right. That is of course if Biden wins, Trump has done nothing but worked to widen this gap between the Left and Right these past four years.

**Easto** · 11-05-20, 10:10 AM

As of this morning Trump is tweeting "Stop the Count". I just don't understand the guy. I know how I would feel if it was my ballot and I was waiting for it to be counted. I consider that statement by him to be incredibly irresponsible to say the least.