Covid-19

[Humboldt]

Thoughts?

Haven't seen as much discussion here as I expected.

My family visit a month ago, canceled. My work ("essential") much more convoluted than normal.

Curious how you guys are doing.

My father and sister canceled their annual visit the first week of March, right as it hit the fan.
They were due to leave a week later and I'm so glad they canceled, coming into and leaving SFA.
By the time they were due to leave it was getting much worse.

I work pet supply retail and sales hit 40 year records a few weeks ago, have slowed since, but our suppliers are blind-sided.

Distancing tape on the floor, reduced hours, closed animal/fish rooms, sneeze guards at the register, registers reduced from 2 to 1, sanitizer for employees and customers, sanitizing doors and debit terminals.

Assume it's the same for everyone, best wishes to all of you.

Any advice appreciated.

[YeOldeStonecat]

Thoughts?: Stunned. Still in disbelief. Modern times have not experienced a global pandemic like this. We have no baseline to go on. Only stories handed down from older grandparents and great grandparents such as the Spanish Flu....but back then in the 1918 era...times were different compared to todays high population and density and widespread fast travel.

Business wise: Wife...she's a Realtor...in the top 5% of our state. Normally this time of year is CRAZY busy for her...she makes more "just in the spring" than....close to my years salary. Gonna hurt us.
My work....just before this flu thing kicked in around the US...we had opened up and hired a 6th position at our company...a full time helpdesk person. His second week with is...barely started training..is when the "work from home" stuff started kicking in. My colleague and I will feel HORRIBLE if we have to let staff go. We too had a record month of March.

Since we support business clients only, and we're their IT support...we are considered "essential". We have healthcare clients, municipality clients, accounting/payroll clients, insurance clients, and every other type of business out there. We've severely cut onsites..."emergency only". Of course with our tools most of our work can be done remotely...but normally we do have a lot of hardware in and out. So a good part of our sales is on "halt" for this. We've been CRAZY busy for the past 2 weeks getting clients setup to work remotely from home. But that's low dollar, low profit work..important..but...not the usual higher profit consulting fees for projects and hardware sales/installation we live on. At our office we're spread out..2x of us per large room (we have 3x large offices...plus 2x small offices for our server room, supply room, storage)....so we're not close to each other. No more "visits" from clients.

So....my gut...most of our clients can "live off their fat" for this first month of ..."stay at home". But going into the second month...many will start hurting. By the third month..we'll see the results of their starvation...they'll call us asking to cut down/chop down..even discontinue, their monthly MSP contracts. Our accounts receivable will start slowing down around the 60-90 day mark. Come June..and more into July..we'll really start feeling the effects of this.

We applied for the EIDL loan at work...the SBA loan, the first 10 grand will be forgiven, can borrow up to 200k without collateral, and up to 2 million if you need..at 3.75%. We'll just do the $10k. Won't go far, over a portion of a months expenses, but...hey the government is doing this to try to stimulate the economy and keep things moving a bit, prevent business from closing. And we'll get the PPP application done this week, covers employee payroll for 8x weeks. That'll help keep us treading water for 2x more months and slow our sinking. We had just made some major purchases and services onboarding with contracts at the beginning of the year...to prepare for some big plans this year. So our "reserves...rainy day funds...in case of emergency break glass funds"...are a little lower than normal. Ugh.

For home, my wife, she applied for the EIDL...and that 10k can help float her for a couple of months, as she works out of home for her real estate. With her being a sole proprietor, we're unsure of the PPP yet...still gathering intel on that. She's going for her brokers license..so being an s-corp is down the road more, unfortunately not yet.

We normally do a lot of travel in the spring and fall. As I type this, wife and I were supposed to be in St Augustine.. (waves to Philip...nearby)...as we hadn't explored the north east corner of Florida yet as we learn about all areas of the state for a place to move to. She also had a work function in Orlando in June, and another trip to visit her mom in Boyton Beach in June. And in May we were supposed to go to Bar Harbor Maine. (would have waved to Lefty driving by as we probably would have driven through his town again on the way to Booth Bay).

All those trips...cancelled!

Today I'm going to the marina to start sanding the boat bottom...when we bought the boat a couple of years ago, prior owners just kept layering on bottom paint. Poor condition, time to take it down to the gel coat and start fresh with nice barrier paint. Black paint. I'll be having black teeth and snots and eyes. Why? Can't find particulate masks (construction face masks). Ahh well, they have to be focused on more important causes such as helping to keep our valiant healthcare workers safe.

I dunno...I'm still trying to wrap my head around this. It's...something we've never had to deal with in our life times...or our parents life times. The whole world! I've been around healthcare before (via our clients) during the prior "flu" variants like H1N1...but they were no where near close to what this is! The spread is SO FAST....occurring in SUCH A SHORT TIME PERIOD.

The way I look at it, this "stay at home/quarantine" thing will last longer than a month or two. IMO they'll have to keep pushing it into June...at least.
And this flu doesn't seem to care about temps/humidity like most flus...just look at New Orleans outbreaks, and in Florida and other southern areas. It's not the typical "just a winter flu..up north" thing.

I bet this fall we'll see a resurgence, as people start closing windows of their homes, being indoors more.

Ultimately, I think we have 2x outcomes. Either..."it spreads across the entire herd"...so we all built immunity to it (sadly sacrificing the weaker ones), or...a vaccine comes out. Which will be first?

I pray all of you and yours stay healthy through this. I do not directly know anyone that got it yet, I'm lucky to live in an area that has not been high infection rate yet (south east corner of Connecticut..although it's spreading this way rapidly from the west). I do have friends in other areas that have already lost friends to this.

Food shopping is now weird...for sure.

I used to use toilet paper like I was spinning the wheel on "Wheel of Fortune". Now I slowly turn that roll like the dial on a safe I'm trying to crack!

It's torture watching the 401k account! Looks like I'll be working til I get buried in the ground......but I keep putting in every week...it'll bounce back. Just tough to watch after such a good year last year.

Stay Safe, Be Well, Remain Healthy, ....to all SG members!

[Philip]

It has surely changed the World in a few weeks.. Over a Million cases, over 60k deaths so far.

Covid-19 World map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
Covid-19 Florida map: https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/op...2a615dc7837c86

Hospitals are overwhelmed, and we will see a lot more death before this is over. Hopefully "social distancing" and halting of businesses will give enough time to scientists to come up with some better form of treatment, medications, or even a vaccine. I never thought I'd see empty store shelves in the States, parks and beaches closed in Florida, and shortage of toilet paper. The market was due for a correction, but this has caused a global recession in a couple of weeks it seems.

On a more personal level, my family is ok, my wife teaches from home over the internet, my daughter is attending school online till the end of this school year, and I mostly work online, so we are ok. I have been helping some friends and businesses setup remote access since everyone is trying to work from home. Small businesses are being blindsided though, many had to close and it will be at least another month before they can bring in any revenue, this will be tough.

From what I know average Americans have less than a month monetary cushion and they will desperately need that government stimulus. All those trillions of printed money will surely reduce the value of the dollar in the long run. Markets dumped as expected, everyone's IRA's and 401k's are down the drain. Market will eventually bounce back but it will be at least a couple of months, and depending on job losses and business it may be slow and painful recovery rather than a quick bounce back.

Air travel is down 87%! Tourism is probably down about the same.. Orlando FL used to get over 60 million tourists in a year, I imagine they will be lucky to get 10% of that. Bars and restaurants are closed, factories are closed, concerts are cancelled, even the Olympic games. BTW, an interesting fact is last time the Olympics were cancelled was in 1940 because of WWII, it was supposed to be hosted by Japan back then as well.

Ultimately, for all this to end and us to return to our normal routines, there needs to be some type of better treatment. Social distancing works only to a point, and it is very painful for the economy.

Stay safe

[Easto]

The Eastos' are healthy. I retired 3 years ago but my wife continued working... at least up until the middle of last month. They furloughed her. She works in accounts payable for a large logistics firm, but when shipping slowed down so did her work. Her employer is continuing to pay 100% of her healthcare premiums "for as long as we can" and we're doing ok otherwise. We do not have any debt and my wife's salary is not essential to our finances. She immediately filed for unemployment and we're already seeing those deposits in her account. We're expecting that it will be a slow back-to-work process and don't expect that to happen until mid May. We're just hanging in there the best we can.

Just like everyone else we're trying to adjust. I'm staying pretty busy around the house and garage, but still not busy enough to keep the moral going 24/7. We are cooking nicer meals and are enjoying each other's company while we cook. We'll get through this.

[Philip]

In these trying times, remember to keep a safe distance of at least one large alligator apart --> https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/us/so...rnd/index.html

[Humboldt]

One of the *much* better articles I've seen: https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...e-coronavirus/

[Easto]

I'm really making a conscious effort to watch as little news as possible. It's just a fire hose of the same thing over and over. I doubt there is anything new about the virus that I don't already know, other than the up to the minute infection and death totals. It's not that I find it depressing, I just don't need to see it everywhere I look. I told the wife that today, Sunday, there is going to be a blackout of the news here at home. It's supposed to rain later today through tomorrow and we're going to get the fireplace going and just relax.

[YARDofSTUF]

I'm currently on pace for leaving my house once every 45 days. Fortunately bought toilet paper and food days before the panic. If I had a bigger freezer I would try to stock up on food for 2 months. lol

Some crazy ****, I'm gonna hide out and hope for the best. Just keep the internet running people!

[jeremyboycool]

[USER BANNED] It all started with China, whose authorities turned an ordinary seasonal viral infection into a thriller about the use of bacteriological weapons. Why? The Communist government needed this to divert attention from defeat in the economic war with the United States, recorded in the trade deal of January 15, 2020. Desperately needed a victory.

And on January 20, China reported 136 new cases of infection in Wuhan, as well as patients in Beijing and Guangdong. After that, information about a new “terrible epidemic” began to spread like an avalanche. The WHO report (on February 6-24, 2020) added gasoline to the fire with reports that in the initial phase of the outbreak, mortality is 17.3%, and for people over 80, it reaches 21.9%. Do you remember? [SPAM LINK REMOVED, user banned]

True, at the end of March it turned out that Chinese statistics did not include information about asymptomatic infected people, so the danger of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was exaggerated a hundred times. According to a German infectious disease doctor and microbiologist Sucharit Bhakdi, 99.5% of people who become infected with coronavirus have no symptoms of the disease or have mild symptoms. Moreover, this coronavirus does not affect the quantitative indicators and structure of natural mortality at all.
But this was no longer interesting for the media, because the highest ratings are given to those media that most frighten the townsfolk. It was not interesting for some governments, because the frightened population, the easier it is to control it.

This is nothing but conspiracy gossip. The idea that COVID 19 is just a fabricated story to control the masses with fear is a bit silly, especially considering the economic impacts.

[jeremyboycool]

Ignorance can be harmful. People who are not taking COVID 19 and social distancing seriously are just putting others in greater danger. Certain members of our society are at a higher risk of developing severe illness as a result of COVID 19 and our hospitals are currently overstressed. When a person doesn't take COVID 19 seriously, even if the disease does not pose much threat to them, they still are putting others at risk, as they can still carry and transmit it. Social distancing is a group effort, and it is not just for our personal benefit, it is to slow the spread of the virus, to take the pressure off our infrastructures and help protect those in our society who are at a greater risk of a severe reaction. And to go around and spread misinformation and conspiracy theories about COVID 19 is just about the most irresponsible thing a person can do.

“The evil in the world comes almost always from ignorance, and goodwill can cause as much damage as ill-will if it is not enlightened. People are more often good than bad, though in fact that is not the question. But they are more or less ignorant and this is what one calls vice or virtue, the most appalling vice being the ignorance that thinks it knows everything. . .”
― Albert Camus, The Plague

[Easto]

I've heard the term "Covidiots" used for deniers and others who do not take this seriously.

[Philip]

I've heard the term "Covidiots" used for deniers and others who do not take this seriously.

Covidiots, lol, that's funny

[Ken]

MIT did a study and said that the longest sneeze that they saw was...27ft.! And the miniscule droplets hang in the air... Keep that in mind when you are thinking about 6ft...

They are comparing apples to concrete blocks trying to compare this COVID19 to the flu. The flu season is about Oct. to maybe May, however the virus still 'hangs around' during the summer. That is why it can simultaneously develop all across the country so quickly when the conditions are right.

COVID19 originated from 1 location and spread to over 182 countries in less than 3 months... No comparison whatsoever!

Fortunately it is not as deadly as some of the other viruses that are still around or that have been eradicated, at least in theory (small pox, polio and such)

Some of the viruses like COVID and the flu have scientist and doctors baffled. Anyone that has had a college statistics course knows that the sample base is still not large enough with credible data. China is a communist country. You can't believe anything that they say...

If they understood the flu, it would have been eradicated already...

Be safe!

[jeremyboycool]

Just so we don't get the wrong impression about sample size in Statistics:

A "small" size does not mean you have bad estimators. That is a common misconception that I have observed, but you can get reliable estimators with a sample size as small as say 20 observations, maybe even less depending on the context. For many situations between 20 to 50 samples can be enough, which can be proven mathematically and demonstrated with simulations. Often a large sample size misleads people because you can find statistically significant results if your sample size is too large, even if there is no true effect. The larger your sample size the smaller your p-values, regardless of if there is a true effect or not, which means with a large enough sample size you can show statistical significance for just about anything. Give me a huge sample size and I can show strong evidence that an all doughnut diet will make you lose weight. Another way sample size misleads, is that people tend to think that the larger the sample size the more reliable the study, but this has been shown to be untrue time and time again. Not to say a large sample size is bad, things just need to be interpreted with the consideration of how that impacts the related statistics you are using for your analysis.

A lot of things need to be considered when assessing the usefulness of a study and it definitely takes a lot more to understand statistics than an intro statistics course (college or not), which is actually a huge problem in science right now. What is more important than the sample size, is understanding how to interpret a scope of inference for a study, which means understanding its limitations. A good study using a small sample size will likely be better than a bad study using a huge sample size.

[Easto]

Well, it looks like today 4/11/2020 will be the day that the US reaches 20k virus deaths.

[jeremyboycool]

This virus has proved that how helpless we are in front of the mother nature. All these innovations and technologies but still the whole world is unable to contain this virus. We must start to pay more respect towards nature.

Humans, along with their innovations and technologies are part of nature. Computers, atomic bombs, skyscrapers, and supermodels are all things created by Mother Nature since humans are part of nature. I, personally, never understood this dichotomous view of humankind and nature, when they are the same thing. The term "unnatural" is nothing but a subjective classification, that varies from person to person, with no true objective division. Humans are a force of nature themselves, probably one of the most devastating forces of nature on the planet. Humankind has weathered many diseases throughout our history, and there will likely be more pandemics in the future. Even though the virus has killed lots of people and will kill many more, there are still billions of humans alive and carrying on their lives, so while we do need to take the virus seriously, we are far from helpless.

[Easto]

Well, it looks like today 4/11/2020 will be the day that the US reaches 20k virus deaths.

4/16/2020 and we're at 33.5k already (and counting)

[Philip]

38k deaths in the US 2 days later... About 2k deaths per day now.

[Easto]

I get regular updates from my city councilwomen via email. It appears that every CV related death in our city had some sort of preexisting condition. I realize it can hit anyone, but I thought it was nice that this tidbit was reported at the top of the list.

The wife and I are staying indoors all the time. We went shopping this morning and that was the first time we've been out in public (shopping) in almost 2 weeks. It was just so surreal wearing a mask and gloves while in the store.

[jeremyboycool]

Here is an interesting vid on COVID 19. It is a bit outdated, but still an interesting watch.



I am hoping COVID 19 is on the way out, the number of reported cases in my area have dropped a lot since the stay at home policy, but I also worry about a second wave if we move too fast. Social distancing is clearly helping, but it does not build herd immunity.